Extraction / Mining Mapping
West African Resources is projecting record gold production in 2026: 430,000 to 490,000 ounces from its combined Burkina Faso operations, driven by the first full year of output from the Kiaka Gold Mine. Kiaka is expected to contribute 240,000 to 280,000 ounces. Sanbrado, WAF’s flagship operation 90 kilometres southeast of Ouagadougou, will add 190,000 to 210,000 ounces. In March 2026, WAF released an updated 10-year production outlook projecting gold production averaging over 480,000 ounces annually from 2026 to 2031, peaking at 494,000 ounces in 2030 and totalling 4.2 million ounces over the decade. All-in sustaining costs for 2026 are guided at $1,200 to $1,400 per ounce. At gold prices above $3,000, the margins are substantial. WAF is considering first dividends in the second half of 2026. The company has allocated $20 million for exploration in 2026, with plans to drill more than 100,000 metres across its key sites.
Kiaka’s entry into full production is the event that makes these numbers possible. The mine, located in the commune of Gogo in the Zoundweogo province, was acquired by WAF from B2Gold in 2021 for approximately 55 billion CFA francs. Construction was completed on schedule and under budget. First gold was poured in Q3 2025, ahead of the original timeline. The mine is designed as a large-scale open-pit operation with a 20-year mine life and annual output capacity of 234,000 ounces, processing free-milling gold ore through a conventional gyratory crushing and semi-autogenous ball mill circuit followed by carbon-in-leach processing. The 2024 feasibility study update confirmed a 4.8-million-ounce gold reserve, with average production costs projected at $1,052 per ounce. WAF has planned a drill programme beneath the current open-pit to assess potential for pit expansion or development of a large-scale underground operation following completion of the open pit.
The scale is consequential for Burkina Faso. WAF’s combined projected output of 15.5 tonnes per year across Sanbrado, Toega and Kiaka would make it the country’s largest gold producer, surpassing Iamgold’s Essakane (14.1 tonnes in 2024) and Endeavour Mining’s combined Hounde and operations (13.5 tonnes). At national level, the World Bank projects Burkina Faso’s gold production at 56 tonnes in 2025, rising to 64 tonnes in 2026 and 65 tonnes in 2027. The increase from 56 to 64 tonnes represents a roughly 14% jump, with Kiaka accounting for the largest single increment. This reverses a multi-year decline: industrial output fell from 67 tonnes in 2021 to 53.3 tonnes in 2024. The 2026 rebound restores production closer to the 2021 peak but does not yet surpass it.
Kiaka does not operate in isolation from the country’s broader gold sector dynamics. In October 2025, the Youga mine restarted under Soleil Resources. The government-backed BOAD released CFA 10 billion ($17.8 million) to support the Boungou and Wahgnion mines. Wahgnion was nationalised in June 2025, with output channelled through SOPAMIB, the state mining company. Nordgold is commissioning a new operation. Orezone’s Bombore mine is ramping up. The sector is recovering simultaneously from multiple vectors: new mines entering production, restarted operations, nationalised assets being brought back to steady state, and government capital injections into underperforming sites.
The title of this article refers to two trajectories that are running in parallel. The first is the production surge: Burkina Faso’s gold output is rising materially in 2026, led by Kiaka. The second is the long countdown: every open-pit gold mine has a finite ore reserve. Kiaka’s 20-year mine life and Sanbrado’s updated plan to 2036 provide long runways. But the national gold sector’s sustainability depends on whether exploration converts to new reserves at a rate that replaces depletion. WAF’s 100,000-metre drill programme and $20 million exploration budget in 2026 address this directly, targeting extensions at Kiaka (underground potential beneath the open pit), Sanbrado (M5 North continuation) and regional targets. The question is whether the exploration pipeline across all operators in Burkina Faso is sufficient to sustain production at 64 to 65 tonnes per year beyond the current generation of mines.
The operating environment complicates this assessment. Burkina Faso is governed by a military junta that took power in September 2022 under Captain Ibrahim Traore. The country formally exited ECOWAS on January 29, 2025 as part of the Alliance of Sahel States. The junta revised the mining code in 2023 to capture more revenue during commodity booms, including increased state participation and stricter local content requirements. Wahgnion’s nationalisation in June 2025 demonstrated that the government is willing to take direct control of underperforming or disputed assets. For WAF, which has operated without dispute and met or beaten guidance for five consecutive years at Sanbrado, the relationship with the Burkinabe authorities has been stable. But the regulatory trajectory of the sector as a whole introduces uncertainty for new investment: potential operators assessing whether to commit capital to exploration or development in Burkina Faso must weigh the geological potential against the risk of mining code changes, increased state participation, or asset seizure.
The security dimension remains the structural constraint. JNIM and Islamic State Sahel Province continue to operate across significant portions of Burkinabe territory. The insurgency has displaced over two million people. Mining operations in the eastern and northern regions face direct security risks. WAF’s Sanbrado and Kiaka operations are in the Centre-South and Centre-East regions, closer to Ouagadougou and less exposed than sites in the Sahel or Est regions. But no mining operation in Burkina Faso is fully insulated from the security environment. Convoy logistics, supply chain continuity and workforce movement are all affected by the threat landscape. The cost of security is embedded in operating expenditure across the sector, and it is not declining.
The gold price environment provides a buffer that makes all of these risks commercially manageable at current levels. At $3,000 to $5,000 per ounce, a mine with AISC of $1,052 to $1,400 generates margins that absorb security costs, royalty increases and regulatory friction. The question is what happens if the price retreats to $2,000 or below. At that level, the same operational and institutional risks become existential for higher-cost operations and marginal for lower-cost ones. Kiaka’s $1,052 AISC positions it at the lower end of the cost curve, providing resilience. But the national production target of 64 to 65 tonnes includes mines across a wide cost spectrum, and the sector’s aggregate viability is more price-sensitive than its best individual assets.
For the West African gold map documented in this series, Kiaka’s entry into full production in 2026 reinforces Burkina Faso’s position as the region’s second-largest producer behind Ghana. It also illustrates the pattern visible across the belt: new capacity is coming online at multiple sites simultaneously, driven by elevated gold prices, completed construction cycles and government pressure to maximise output. The risk is that this production peak coincides with a regulatory and security environment that discourages the next generation of exploration investment needed to replace depleting reserves. The surge is real. Whether it is the beginning of a sustained plateau or the high point before a gradual decline depends on what is drilled, discovered and financed over the next five years.