After a contraction in 2024 and a further decline in 2025, West African gold production is expected to rebound by 8.0% in 2026. According to GlobalData, collective output across the region’s four main producers (Ghana, Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso) fell by 2.4% in 2025, after an estimated 4.4% decline in 2024. The rebound projected for 2026 is therefore not a continuation of a trend but a reversal triggered by specific, identifiable factors. The 2026 recovery is mainly driven by mine restarts, the ramp-up of new projects, and the improvement of operational performance on existing assets. The signal does not point to a generalized momentum across the region. The four main producers do not move at the same pace, and the structural risks affecting the sector (mature mine decline, security, regulatory tightening) remain.
What the 2.4% decline in 2025 actually masked
The 2025 decline did not have the same origin in every country. In Mali, the contraction is mainly explained by the temporary suspension of Barrick Gold’s Loulo-Gounkoto operation, linked to a dispute with the Malian government over alleged unpaid taxes and royalties. Mali’s output is expected to decline by around 30.8% in 2025, to 1.4 moz, weighing significantly on the regional aggregate.
In Ghana, the largest producer in the region, production remained essentially flat in 2025, up only 0.5% compared with 2024. Several mature assets (Ahafo South, Tarkwa, Iduapriem) suffered from lower grades and operational issues, while these pressures were partially offset by higher output from Obuasi and Akyem, and the ramp-up of Shandong Gold’s Namdini project.
Guinea also recorded disruptions in 2025, before the start of new operations. Burkina Faso, by contrast, continued to expand its production base, in particular through the development of the Kiaka project by West African Resources.
Mali as the main driver of the rebound, but not the only one
Mali is expected to be the strongest contributor to the regional recovery. The restart and ramp-up of Loulo-Gounkoto, combined with the contribution of Syama Phase I and Fekola Regional, are expected to push Mali’s production up by 28% in 2026. This rebound, however, remains conditional on country risk. The January 2026 attack on the Morila gold mine illustrates the persistent security exposure, and the country’s dependence on gold, which accounts for a major share of GDP, exports and tax revenue, constitutes a structural fragility.
In Guinea, the recovery is driven by the ramp-up of the Kiniero Gold Mine, which began production in late 2025, and by the stronger performance of Siguiri.
Burkina Faso confirms a different trajectory. West African Resources has issued guidance for 2026 gold production of between 430,000 and 490,000 ounces, on the back of the first full year of operation at Kiaka and a sustained contribution from Sanbrado. Kiaka alone is expected to deliver between 240,000 and 280,000 ounces. The Burkinabe case differs from the Malian dynamic: production is supported there by a project ramp-up rather than by the resolution of a regulatory dispute.
Outside the four main producers, emerging markets (Côte d’Ivoire, Niger, Liberia, Senegal, Sierra Leone) are expected to record collective growth of 3.8% in 2026. Côte d’Ivoire is expected to become the third-largest gold producer in West Africa by 2026, ahead of Mali, while Senegal benefits from the Makabingui and Diamba Sud projects, and from underground expansion at Sabodala-Massawa.
The 8% rebound does not erase the structural risks
The 2026 recovery should not be read as a return to a stable production growth trajectory. Several factors limit the strength of this rebound. Ghana, the anchor of regional production, sees its outlook increasingly shaped by policy tightening. The government’s decision in April 2026 not to renew Gold Fields’ Damang lease and to take control of the mine signals a stronger focus on domestic value capture and state oversight. The introduction of a sliding-scale royalty regime goes in the same direction. The longer-term outlook remains constrained by structural factors. GlobalData projects regional growth of just 0.9% over the 2025-2030 period, to a collective 11.4 moz in 2030, in particular due to the planned closure of mines such as Fekola, Fekola Regional, Essakane and Edikan. The 2026 rebound therefore sits within a structurally flat horizon.
Security risk also remains a major variable, particularly in Mali and Burkina Faso. The continuity of operations on assets located in unstable areas can be disrupted at short notice, as the Morila attack illustrates.
What to watch in 2026
The actual execution of the 8% rebound will depend on a small number of identifiable variables: the effective ramp-up of Loulo-Gounkoto and the absence of further disputes between Barrick and the Malian state; the performance of Kiaka over a full year of production; the operational continuity at Kiniero and Siguiri in Guinea; and the trajectory of Ghana’s mature assets in a tightening regulatory environment.
The second variable to watch is the extent to which the policy tightening observed in Ghana is replicated elsewhere in the region. The Damang case, combined with the sliding-scale royalty regime, sends a signal to operators on the renegotiation of conditions in a high-gold-price environment.
The third variable is the redistribution of weight among regional producers. The relative rise of Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal modifies the long-term geography of West African production. If the trend is confirmed, the region’s center of gravity could gradually shift away from its historical core (Ghana, Mali, Burkina Faso).
The 8% rebound is therefore a real signal, but a conditional one. It rests on a small number of specific events, and does not change the structural trajectory of the sector over the decade.