The Numbers Behind the Shift
Ivory Coast is on track to become West Africa’s third-largest gold producer in 2026, surpassing Mali. That ranking places Abidjan behind only Ghana and Guinea in the subregion. Production rose from 24 tonnes in 2015 to 58 tonnes in 2024, nearly a threefold increase over a decade. The forecast for 2025 was 62 tonnes, with further growth projected through 2026 as new assets reach operational capacity.
Mali’s output, by contrast, fell 23% in 2025 following the Loulo-Gounkoto dispute and associated operational disruptions. While production is rebounding in 2026 following the settlement with Barrick, the gap that opened during that period allowed Ivory Coast to move ahead in the regional rankings. The crossing is partly circumstantial. It is also structural.
A Project Pipeline That Has Been Building for Years
The production trajectory in Ivory Coast is not the result of a single mine or a windfall. It reflects a decade of consistent investment by international operators drawn to a jurisdiction that has maintained stable permitting timelines, competitive fiscal terms and an operational environment that allows projects to move from discovery to production in under five years, according to Mines Minister Mamadou Sangafowa-Coulibaly.
Several assets are driving the current growth. The Lafigué mine, operated by Endeavour Mining 500 kilometres north of Abidjan, poured its first gold in Q2 2024 and is targeting over 200,000 ounces per year for at least 13 years at an all-in sustaining cost of approximately $900 per ounce. The Assafou project, also held by Endeavour on the Tanda-Iguela property in eastern Ivory Coast, published its Definitive Feasibility Study in 2026, confirming average annual production of 265,000 ounces over a 14.5-year mine life. Construction is targeting H2 2026. Resolute Mining’s Doropo project, which received its final mining licence in February 2026, entered construction in Q1 2026 with a total investment of approximately $530 million and a projected production start in 2028. Montage Gold’s Koné project, with reserves exceeding 4 million ounces, is scheduled to begin production in 2027. Perseus Mining has separately taken a 9.9% stake in Aurum Resources’ 3-million-ounce Boundiali project, adding another significant asset to the development pipeline.
The combined profile of these projects represents a material expansion in Ivory Coast’s production base over the next four years, with the government targeting 100 tonnes of annual gold output by 2030.
What the Investment Environment Is Signalling
The flow of capital into Ivory Coast’s gold sector reflects a positioning choice by international operators. In a regional market where several jurisdictions have revised their fiscal and ownership frameworks, Abidjan has maintained conditions that operators describe as predictable. That predictability is itself a competitive asset when evaluated against the backdrop of contract renegotiations elsewhere in West Africa.
The comparison is not a judgment on different governance approaches. States across the region are making deliberate choices about how to maximise the value their populations derive from mineral wealth. Those choices produce different risk profiles for investors. Ivory Coast’s current position reflects the outcome of its own set of choices, built over a decade of consistent policy direction.
Ghana’s situation illustrates how quickly that dynamic can shift. The government’s April 2026 decision not to renew Gold Fields’ Damang lease, the introduction of a sliding-scale royalty regime, and the formalisation of artisanal mining through a centralised processing model signal a tightening of terms that operators are already pricing into their assessments. Ghana remains Africa’s largest gold producer and its longer-term output is not in question. But the investment calculus for new projects in Ghana is changing.
The 2030 Target and What It Requires
Ivory Coast’s government has anchored its mining ambition in a 15-year action plan, the Integrated Policy on Mineral Resources and Energy, with a total budget of 38 trillion CFA francs including energy and hydrocarbons. The mining pillar accounts for approximately 11.4 trillion CFA francs. The 100-tonne production target by 2030 would require roughly a 70% increase from current levels, achievable on current project timelines if Assafou, Koné and Doropo all reach their projected output on schedule.
The geological case supports the ambition. Total estimated national gold potential sits at around 600 tonnes. The current project cluster is concentrated in the north and northeast of the country, regions that have received sustained exploration attention. Significant portions of the territory remain underexplored.
The question for the sector is whether the permitting and infrastructure environment can absorb the pace of development the pipeline implies. Moving from discovery to production in under five years is a competitive differentiator today. Sustaining that timeline as the volume of projects increases will require continued investment in regulatory capacity, grid infrastructure and logistics alongside the mines themselves.