Converging negative signals on the 2026/27 crop and the Strait crisis push prices above $4,100 per tonne.
Cocoa futures hit their highest level in three months on May 6, 2026, rising more than 5% intraday in both New York and London. Prices settled above $4,100 per tonne, driven by a triple negative supply signal.
The first signal comes from early crop surveys for the 2026/27 West African season. They show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees. The cherelle is the small developing fruit whose survival determines the final volume of the main harvest, which begins in October. A weak early indicator at this stage of the season is a serious warning for buyers and processors.
The second signal is climatic. The African Flood and Drought Monitor recorded as of March 29 drought conditions covering approximately two-thirds of Ghana and more than half of Côte d’Ivoire. These two countries together account for more than 60% of global production. Insufficient rainfall at this critical stage of mid-crop development is feeding concerns about yields.
The third factor is geopolitical. The Strait of Hormuz closure continues to weigh on global shipping costs and fertiliser supplies. Ivorian farmers are already reporting difficulties securing inputs at accessible prices. Rising fertiliser costs mid-season can directly affect the quality and volume of the next main harvest.
Research firm StoneX revised its global surplus forecasts downward. For 2026/27, it now projects a surplus of 149,000 metric tonnes, down from 267,000 in January. For 2025/26, the estimate is trimmed to 247,000 tonnes from 287,000. These figures signal a tighter market than anticipated, and a thinner buffer on stocks than previously forecast.
Why does this signal matter for West Africa? Because Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana remain the two pillars of the global cocoa economy. A weak 2026/27 harvest directly affects export revenues, tax receipts and the incomes of millions of producers in both countries. The fiscal implications for both Abidjan and Accra could be significant.
Demand remains divided. European and North American grindings continue to contract. Asian grindings, however, rose 5.2% in the first quarter, beating expectations. Demand is shifting geographically without collapsing globally.
The coming weeks will be decisive for price formation. If drought conditions persist in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, the market could begin pricing in a fourth consecutive year of supply strain. Traders and processors who have not yet covered their 2026/27 supply face a short decision window.