Mali’s industrial gold production reached 23.5 tonnes between January and June 2026, according to mines ministry data reported by Reuters, up roughly 30% from about 18 tonnes in the same period of 2025 and beating the government’s own first-half forecast of 21.2 tonnes. The rebound puts Mali on track to meet or exceed its full-year target of 43.2 tonnes.
The recovery has an identifiable driver. Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto complex produced 6.9 tonnes in H1 2026, already surpassing the 5.5 tonnes it managed across all of 2025, when a dispute over Mali’s revised mining code put the mine under state provisional administration and halted exports for months. That dispute settled in late 2025, with Barrick agreeing to pay roughly $430 million and regaining operational control in December. B2Gold’s Fekola mine remained the country’s largest single producer at 8.85 tonnes, while Resolute and Allied Gold contributed 3.0 and 3.5 tonnes respectively. Separately, Mali’s Council of Ministers granted a large-scale mining permit this month for B2Gold’s Menankoto project, adding to a development pipeline that also includes Toubani Resources’ Kobada project.
The scale of the swing is the real story here, not just the 30% headline. Industrial output fell from a 2023 peak of 66.5 tonnes to 42.2 tonnes in 2025, a 37% decline driven almost entirely by the state’s confrontation with foreign operators over the 2023 mining code, higher royalties, and increased state ownership stakes. That the sector is recovering without those terms being rolled back is the detail worth sitting with: Mali tightened its hold on mining revenue and production still rebounded once operational disputes were resolved case by case. That is a meaningfully different outcome than foreign capital simply retreating, though it required a $430 million settlement and months of halted exports to get there, a cost most West African states courting mining investment would want to avoid replicating.
What to watch: whether output through the second half of 2026 holds the pace needed to clear 43.2 tonnes, since a single strong quarter driven by one mine’s post-dispute catch-up is not the same as a structural recovery; how the Menankoto and Kobada projects move from permit to production, since Mali’s pipeline of new mines is now what determines whether 2026 is a one-year rebound or the start of sustained growth; and whether other foreign operators still negotiating under the 2023 code reach settlements as costly as Barrick’s, or manage smoother renewals that would suggest the state’s approach is becoming more predictable rather than case-by-case.