Two trade frameworks that West African governments have relied on for different reasons are both in transition at the same time. AGOA, the US preferential access programme, expired in September 2025, was renewed by Trump for one year only until December 31, 2026, and is now under formal review for “modernisation.” AfCFTA, the African Continental Free Trade Area, has moved into what its Secretariat describes as an implementation phase after five years of largely incomplete delivery. The pressure on both fronts is arriving simultaneously, and the responses required point in different directions.
AGOA’s situation is the more immediate of the two. When it lapsed in September 2025, African exporters absorbed a double impact: the loss of duty-free access on top of the reciprocal tariffs Trump had imposed in April 2025 under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. AGOA exports dropped 32% in the year ending November 2025 compared to 2024. South African automotive exports, historically a major beneficiary, fell nearly 75% from approximately 25,500 vehicles to 6,500 over the same period. The February 2026 renewal restored some relief, but the US Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs in late February, and Trump responded by imposing a 10% universal tariff under a different legal authority. The number of effective duty-free tariff lines for African exporters remains significantly reduced compared to pre-2025 levels.
The terms of the coming renewal debate are now explicit. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Congress that the administration intends to seek a longer-term extension but that a “modernised” AGOA must deliver greater market access for US businesses, farmers and ranchers. The USTR issued a formal request for public comments on April 29, 2026. The language of the review frames AGOA not as a development instrument but as a strategic trade tool. The key demands being signalled include reciprocal concessions, removal of non-tariff barriers to US goods, and reduced preferential treatment for competing imports. For West African states that have benefited primarily from textile and apparel provisions, the exposure is direct. A restructured AGOA that requires bilateral concessions would impose negotiating costs and regulatory adjustments that smaller economies are poorly equipped to manage on a one-year timeline.
The AfCFTA context compounds this. The agreement officially entered implementation phase in 2021 but five years later its Secretariat acknowledges that the primary challenge is execution, not ambition. Rules of origin negotiations remain incomplete. Non-tariff barriers persist across most trade corridors. Infrastructure deficits limit the movement of goods even where legal frameworks exist. Intra-African trade as a share of total African trade remains below 20%, compared to over 60% in Europe and around 40% in Asia. The Guided Trade Initiative, launched in 2022 to pilot preferential trade among seven countries on 96 products, has expanded but not yet produced systemic results. AfCFTA Secretary-General Wamkele Mene, speaking at the Africa Investment and Trade Conference in Algiers on May 9, 2026, stated that the legal instruments and institutional mechanisms are now in place. Implementation is the remaining gap.
The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa is convening a regional workshop on AfCFTA implementation in Lomé on May 21 and 22, 2026, explicitly framed around the trade disruptions from the Hormuz crisis as an additional pressure on African trade systems. That framing is accurate. The Middle East crisis has disrupted supply chains, raised freight costs and compressed margins for commodity traders across the continent. For West African states whose trade is primarily oriented toward Asia and Europe, the displacement of normal shipping routes adds friction to exports and imports that AfCFTA’s domestic architecture is not yet capable of absorbing.
The simultaneous pressure from both frameworks is creating a recalibration that was not planned. AGOA’s uncertainty reduces the value of investment in export-oriented manufacturing for the US market. AfCFTA’s implementation gaps limit the ability to redirect that manufacturing toward intra-African trade as a substitute. The window between those two realities is where West African exporters, particularly in textiles, agro-processing and light manufacturing, currently sit. The structural answer is deeper AfCFTA implementation. The practical timeline for that is measured in years. AGOA’s renewal deadline is December 31, 2026.