The African Continental Free Trade Area was signed in Kigali in March 2018. Trading officially commenced in January 2021. Five years later, the world’s largest free trade area by number of participating countries is still, in practical terms, largely a promise. The Africa CEO Forum opening today in the same city where the AfCFTA was born is an opportunity to ask a direct question: what needs to change, and who is prepared to drive it?
What the numbers say
Intra-African trade reached an estimated $220 billion in 2024, a 12.4% rebound after a contraction in 2023. That is genuine progress. But the context matters. Intra-African trade still accounts for only around 15 to 18% of total continental commerce, compared with more than 60% in Asia and 70% in Europe.
Despite the Guided Trade Initiative’s expansion and renewed calls for industrialisation at the 2026 Africa Trade Summit in Accra, intra-African trade remains stubbornly anchored at approximately 15 to 18% of total continental commerce, falling dramatically short of the 50% target that architects of the agreement envisioned.
The AfCFTA covers a market of 1.4 billion people with a combined GDP exceeding $3.4 trillion. The infrastructure of ambition is there. What is missing is execution.
Where the gaps are
The barriers are well documented. Only a portion of African countries are actively trading under AfCFTA rules due to challenges including incomplete ratification of key protocols, inadequate digital and physical infrastructure, and delays in aligning national tariffs and customs procedures with continental frameworks.
A persistent trade finance gap estimated at around $100 billion limits SME participation in regional trade. Many African businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, are still unaware of AfCFTA opportunities or face difficulties accessing finance and information.
Africa’s intra-regional trade remains largely dominated by primary commodities. There is a gradual shift toward value-added goods like machinery, motor vehicles, chemicals and processed food, but the transition from raw commodity dependence to diversified economic output is still in early stages.
What the CEO Forum theme demands
The forum’s theme this year is “The Scale Imperative: Why Africa Must Embrace Shared Ownership.” That framing speaks directly to the AfCFTA’s core problem. The agreement exists. The legal architecture is largely in place. What has been missing is the private sector’s ownership of the process.
Governments negotiate trade agreements. Businesses make them real. Full implementation of the AfCFTA could boost intra-African trade by over 50%, lifting millions out of poverty and catalysing industrial diversification, allowing African firms to finally achieve the scale necessary to compete globally. But that outcome requires companies to actually trade across borders, source regionally, build cross-border supply chains, and take on the operational complexity that comes with it.
The CEO Forum is one of the few spaces where the private sector leaders who need to make those decisions are in the same room as the heads of state and ministers who need to create the enabling conditions for them.
What a commitment looks like
The forum’s mandate this year is concrete commitments, not declarations. For the AfCFTA, a concrete commitment means something specific: a company announcing it will source a defined share of its inputs from within the continent; a government committing to a timeline for customs digitalisation; a bank announcing trade finance lines targeted at cross-border SME transactions.
The message for 2026 could not be clearer: the time for speeches has passed. What Africa needs now is ruthless prioritisation of practical implementation over aspirational rhetoric.
Kigali is the right city to make that shift. It is where the AfCFTA was signed. It is where the CEO Forum has returned for the third time. And it is where, this week, the continent’s business leaders have an opportunity to move from endorsing a vision to building one.